Ukraine’s economy fell quickly as the first victim of the Russian war, and it is still groaning from the catastrophic repercussions at the end of its third year. The declared numbers at various governmental and specialized levels are hidden, and do not herald a near recovery.
The direct losses, according to a study conducted by the Kiev Institute for Economics in cooperation with the National Bank and the relevant ministries, exceeded 88 billion dollars, but it does not take into account the extent of the damage to the infrastructure, housing, educational, medical and social services.
As for the indirect losses, according to the institute, the trillion barrier expected by Parliament exceeded the beginning of the war, if the end of last year amounted to 1.164 trillion dollars, of which 170 billion dollars for infrastructure alone.
All sectors are losing
The biggest losses caused by this war related to the productive sectors:
- The first is a trade that lost $ 450.5 billion.
- Then industry and construction by about 410 billion.
- Followed by agriculture by approximately 83 billion.
- The energy sector – which Russia has focused over the past two years – has also incurred losses of more than $ 43 billion.
- After that, the transportation sector came with losses of about 39 billion.
- After that, the health care sector comes with about $ 11.4 billion of losses.
- The education sector is followed by about 14.5 billion.
- Then tourism is $ 7.3 billion.
War burdens imposed
In addition to the above, the war imposed great burdens on the Ukrainian economy in new fields, on top of which is the removal of mines that acquired during 3 years at 42 billion dollars, as well as housing the displaced and destroyed by their homes by about 22.4 billion.
The government was also forced to spend 10 billion on social aid, and spent 13.4 billion to remove destroyed buildings and other Russian bombing waste.
Local product deficit
The Ukrainian GDP is unable to bear the above, as its indicators have been the beginning of the war by nearly 35%, then it improved after the Russians exit from 6 provinces, and it settled with a decline of approximately 15%, according to the Ministry of Finance.
“The real GDP of Ukraine is now about 3 quarters of the level before the beginning of the war in 2022, and the war has led to an increase in budget expenditures by about 70% by the local product.”
“According to different expectations, public debt in 2024 reached about 90-99% of the value of GDP (about 184.3 billion dollars),” he added in a interview with Al-Jazeera Net.
Ukrainian President Folodimir Zellinski had said that his country needs a monthly $ 5 billion to deal with the war and its repercussions, as part of a 41% budget based on external aid.
An agricultural industrial decline
The agriculture and industry sectors decreased, leaving the greatest impact on the size of the GDP, as they constituted 12.2% and 28.6% of its value, respectively.
“Steel production has declined 3 times by virtue of the occupation of the lands of southeastern Ukraine, which includes 70% of the country’s mines and factories, and the size of the Agricultural Fund is shrinking by a quarter,” said Olina Billan economist.
“For example, Ukraine produced 20-21 million tons of steel every year, and it ranked 12 to 14 in the global ranking, but its production declined about 3.5 times, and it moved to the 20th place in the world,” she added.
In the agricultural field, Bilan says, “About 20% of the Ukrainian lands are occupied, and the bombing is continuing on the lands of the rest of the provinces, and the export ports on the Black Sea have been besieged for 3 years.”
Companies and currency stumble
Ukrainians touched the effect of the war on their country’s economy and pockets daily, as their national currency (Hyrifenia) has died for 3 years to about 42 Hurrifenia against one dollar, instead of 26.5 beginning 2022.
Despite raising the average income from 15,000 HHB before the war to about 23 thousand at the end of 2024, the salaries remained at the limits of $ 550, but with a sharp increase in inflation rates, 12% last year reached alone, after it reached nearly 7% in 2023, and the year that Before it reached 26.6%, according to the Ministry of Finance.
As for small and medium -sized companies, which make up the backbone of the Ukrainian economy, and provide 74% of the jobs, 9.6% of them stopped working permanently, and the remaining percentage losses reached approximately 56% of their market value, at a time when only 27% of them regained the level of profits prewar.
Over the course of 3 years, the unemployment rate in the country increased almost twice, after it was at 10.1% at the end of 2021, according to the governmental employment service.
Pessimism and glimmer of hope
Based on the foregoing, a dark, pessimistic image of the economic scene in Ukraine, whose officials say it needs the “Marshall Plan” for reconstruction at least $ 500 billion after the war.
“Undoubtedly, in 2025, it will be difficult for the economy, because foreign aid has become less, with many conditions that the Trump administration in the United States hints,” expert Billan told Al -Jazeera Net.
But it sees positive indicators, and adds, “The local product achieved a growth of 3.6% in 2024, and the economy decreased from 50% in the middle of 2022 to about 33% today. The budget also exceeded what was the beginning of the war, but external support has decreased from 60 to 40% During 3 years.
From the point of view of the expert, “compared to Britain, which has not lost anything from its lands during World War II, and its local product decreased by 30%, the Ukrainian indicators are not very bad, especially since we are still living the war, and Russia occupies 20% of our lands.”
“These indications indicate that we will be able to recover within 4-5 years after the end of the war,” she concluded.
