The high prices of coffee affected more than 90% last year by demand in most major markets, and now, consumption began to fluctuate even in the markets where the demand was steadfast, according to Bloomberg.
With the weakening growth of demand in the United States and European countries with high income, the industry has increasingly dependent on consumers in emerging economies, but there are early signs that consumption has begun to falter in these areas, according to Bloomberg.
In Vietnam, groups in the coffee sector stated that high prices make some buyers hesitant to submit large requests, and in Indonesia, some of the quotes have turned into the use of less quality pills, and shipments from Brazil, the largest producer of coffee globally, slowed to China.
Possible losses
“These are countries with less available income, so we have to wonder how high retail prices will affect the demand … we may see some loss,” Bloomberg quoted the head of coffee research and analysis at Social A Denries SA for trade. Keith Flori as saying.
This shift comes after the prices of grains jumped from the Arabica class, used in luxury mixtures, by 94% in the past 12 months, to reach a new record this week, and the futures for the Robosta class increased, after the bad weather in Brazil and Vietnam has led second The largest coffee supplier, to reduce crops and raise concerns about the global deficit.
Bloomberg noted the increase in coffee consumption in the countries producing in the last three years, as local consumption reached about one bag in 3 coffee bags produced in these countries, a share that was constantly growing, according to the data of the International Coffee Organization.
Bloomberg quoted the head of the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (APEC), Pavel Cardoso as saying that consumers are likely to become “more conservative”, and that the largest farmer in the world (Vietnam) is the second largest demand for demand.
For consumers in Vietnam and Indonesia, the increase in prices comes at a time when the link to the drink increased, cafes flourished recently as increases in the income available throughout Southeast Asia gave the market, until the region stimulated to import more coffee last year.
Cost reduction tricks
The head of the coffee sector at the Indonesian Coffee and Coffee Society, Moliono Swiss, said that the local coffee leader in Indonesia is now turning into the use of low -quality pills to control costs, and added that ingredients such as roasted atom, rice and peanuts are added to replace coffee pills in the targeted products of small cafes low Cost.
“Using current high -tech machines, they can still maintain good quality products and reduce grain losses,” Swiss said.
Treene Duk Minh, president of the Bonn M, the Coffee Association in the Dak Lac province, located in the central highlands, the largest coffee coffee area, said that high coffee prices make some buyers in Vietnam hesitant to submit large requests.
As for China, according to Bloomberg, it is a major buyer of many agricultural commodities, it is still a beginner in the field of coffee, and the tea remains the most popular drink in it, however, drinking coffee in Chinese urban areas remains remarkable, as the US Department of Agriculture recently estimated that consumption has increased more than From weakness in the past decade.
But in 2024, coffee shipments fell from Brazil to China, according to the Sikaf Group, a group of two sources in the country in South America, after a breakthrough in 2023.
The consultant and coffee market expert, Michael von Lirt, said that reports that activity in Chinese cafes have been supported by the argument for the slowdown of consumption growth at the present time.
“The culture of coffee consumption in China is still at the beginning … but with the weakness in the economy we have seen over the past months, I wonder whether consumers will spend more on coffee and whether the growth momentum is continuing,” said von Lerirt.
