On February 23, Germany will witness general elections that are in the economic nature, after the difference in economic trends has caused disputes between the components of the ruling coalition.
Germany’s economy shrinks for the second year in a row with increasing challenges that continue to pressure it.
In the midst of Germany’s preoccupation with the largest economy in the European Union, with electoral campaigns, there is no time in front of it for urgent European issues. According to the results, the elections may follow difficult and scheduled coalition talks, which would lead to more paralysis and preoccupation with the affairs of the bloc. European.
The clash was between German Chancellor Olaf Schults and his partners in the ruling on the best path to revive the country’s heart’s economy from the collapse of the ruling coalition last November.
The former coalition included the Shoots Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party, the liberal.
The economy is the basis
The German economy was recorded in 2024, for the second year in a row, with little hope of rapid recovery.
The country’s gross domestic product decreased by 0.2% last year, according to the initial figures issued by the German Federal Statistics Office (Desties), after a contraction of 0.3% in 2023.
Unusually, Berlin finds itself in the tail of Europe in terms of achieving growth, and the European Commission expected that the eurozone economy in general would be a growth rate of 0.8% in 2024, much higher than Germany.
According to Timo Flomersuer, Head of the expectations department at the Evo Institute for Economic Research, the structural problems in Germany have multiple aspects.
“Compared to other sites in the world, the burdens on companies are high due to taxes, bureaucracy and energy costs, and the development of digital infrastructure, energy and transportation is going more slowly, and the deficiency of skilled workers is more clear.”
Who will rule Germany?
Certainly, after the February 23 elections, another coalition government will eventually take over the reins of affairs, and despite this, the former coalition, which included the Social Democratic Party, the Free Democratic Party, and the Green Party, are not likely to return.
One of the main tasks for the new government will be to revive the country’s economy.
According to current opinion polls, the new government is expected to lead the conservative bloc, the Christian alliance, which includes the Christian Democratic Party, and its younger brother, the Bavarian Christian Social Party.
A poll conducted by the Yogov Foundation showed a clear progress for the Christian alliance by 28%, despite its decline in two percentage points from the previous week.
The Social Democratic Party was late for the alternative for Germany, the far -right, in previous opinion polls, but according to the recent poll of the Yugov Foundation, each of them won 19%, after winning the Schultz Party and the alternative lost two.
The Green Party achieved a slight increase in the survey, reaching 15% its highest level since last April, while the Free Democratic Party, the Left Party and the Sara Wagncinsten populist alliance remained near the 5% threshold, usually required to enter Parliament.
The most likely scenario is for the Christian alliance (the Christian Democratic Party, the Bavarian Social Party), and the Social Democratic Party a ruling coalition, as all parties excluded the formation of a government with the Alternative Party for Germany.
The electoral campaign for the most fortunate candidate to win, the leader of the Christian Democratic Party, Frederich Mertz is based on lowering the taxes of companies and families, as he sees that the heavy burden that taxes constitute the German economy.
Mertz will seek to work more attractive, as he pledged to eliminate the reputable bureaucracy in the country.
Motivating recovery
Whatever the new ruler in Berlin, with the elections next month, he will face a list of huge tasks. In addition to reforming the economy and the dilapidated infrastructure in the country, the Germans are calling for reducing energy costs, even if their country needs to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.
One of the questions asked if the new government will support the establishment of gas stations, in order to serve as a reserve when power generation of wind and solar energy is not enough.
It is expected that the potential counselor Mertz will change the path of Germany in terms of many major policies, and there are concerns among the environmental protection advocates of taking steps back.
For example, Mertz doubts Germany’s energy transformation into “green” steel, friendly, and his party has pledged to re -provide fuel support to farmers.
But while Mertz recently described Germany, Germany gradually giving up nuclear energy as regrettable, he said that it may have been too late now for a coup.
Mertz stressed that he is still committed to Germany’s energy transformation into leaving away from fossil fuels.
Germany’s approach in this regard does not receive a general welcome across Europe.
“The Germans’ unwillingness to obtain nuclear energy themselves is nothing, but it is different when they prevent others from using the money needed to achieve this. What a hypocrisy.”
“Elephant” at the White House
Mirtz, the leader of the conservative in Germany, sees himself in a better position to negotiate with US President Donald Trump compared to the current counselor Schultz, who was more critical to the new American administration, especially with regard to Trump’s ally interventions, Elon Mask’s last in the election campaign in Germany.
Perhaps this relationship may become a decisive role if the US President believes his promise and applied new customs duties, and Germany fears that it will be on the line of confrontation in a new trade war between the European Union and the United States, which would harm its economy directed to export strongly.
“As long as European member states are united, they will be respected in the world, including in the United States. But in the event of division, no one will take us on me Seriously. ”
China and Ukraine
Trump will also expect Germany and the European Union to adopt a more clear position against China, in the midst of the possibility of a comprehensive trade war that Europe has sought to distance itself from it, and the new leaders in Berlin will have to determine how they will deal with the matter, and other Washington demands.
Meretz stressed that Germany must take responsibility for leadership with others in Europe.
The matter extends to Ukraine, as Mertz is still frank in his support to enhance military support, a case of the Shults government.
Mirtz accused the governor, his rival Schultz last week of electoral flirtation, after he refused to sign additional weapons of 3 billion euros ($ 3.13 billion) to Ukraine.
Mertz believes that aid can be funded as “exceptional expenses”, without bearing new debts, while Schultz says it will require more borrowing, which would affect the so -called “debt curbing system”, the German constitutional restrictions on normal borrowing.
It is now expected that Ukraine will have to wait for a decision even after the February 23 elections.
