An “artificially drawn” border, a “51e State”, maps showing a unified Canadian-American territory under the banner of the United States: Donald Trump multiplies his remarks about an annexation of Canada. In the opinion of experts, the scenario is improbable. But technically, what are the two countries planning on this subject?
“Trump said he wouldn’t use military force to take Canada, so that means a political process that ends in each country – and that’s not even close to being likely,” comments Adam Chapnick , professor of defense studies at the Canadian Forces College, in Toronto.
He specifies that he does not believe in the real desire of the president-designate to annex his northern neighbor, rather seeing it as the mockery of a “bully” galvanized by the attention.
The only way to peacefully annex the two countries would require a green light from both the US Congress, the Parliament of Canada and the Canadian provinces.
In Canada
The Constitution is the act that defines the Canadian political system, the role of its institutions, its procedures. An amendment would be necessary to completely change the status of the country.
But it’s not simple.
To amend the Constitution on this type of issue, the consent of all the provinces, the House of Commons and the Senate is required.
“It’s been a long time since we no longer transfer pieces of territory as if they were part of an individual’s heritage,” explains professor at the Faculty of Law of the University of Montreal Stéphane Beaulac. The change in sovereignty of a territory also brings us to international law, which requires the approval of the population. It would therefore be necessary to go through a pan-Canadian referendum. »
The specialist in public international law and Canadian constitutional law believes that it could be necessary to obtain majority support from the population in each province.
About 82% of Canadians surveyed by the Léger firm in December responded that they did not like the idea of Canada as 51e State, according to a survey of 1,520 respondents.
What if a province still wanted to join the United States? It should first gain its independence from Canada. Having become sovereign, it could establish its rules for membership in another country. The United States should also accept this new state.
In the United States
The Constitution provides for the possibility of welcoming new states into the Union – a provision that has been used many times, as the United States has gone from 13 states at the country’s founding in 1776 to 50 today. Congress is responsible for determining the membership of a new country.
New York University law professor Roderick Hills Jr. explains that Congress has established rules, which provide for receiving the application of an elected government, enacting a law to authorize its admission, under certain conditions, and voting for his admission. A principle of fairness for other states admitted with this procedure makes it very difficult to modify it, he said.
PHOTO HAIYUN JIANG, THE NEW YORK TIMES ARCHIVES
Joint session of representatives and senators of the United States Congress for the certification of the presidential results in Washington, last Monday
New entities admitted to the Union often first became territories. The process can be long before achieving statehood: the United States annexed Hawaii in 1898, but it was not until 1959 that the archipelago became the 50e American state.
“But Donald Trump is just making a mockery of your prime minister, and the reason Republicans will never vote for Canada as a state is the same reason they won’t give Washington statehood or in Puerto Rico: you are too liberal,” he adds.
“Not all Republicans would like Canada to join the United States, because of the way the American system works,” agrees Mr. Chapwick. With our population of 40 million, we would have as many House seats as California, and most would go to the Democrats. »
International law
Without launching into an armed conflict, would there be another strategy to force Canada into the fold of its southern neighbor?
“Threats that could force Canada to agree to come under American sovereignty would completely clash with public international law,” replies Mr. Beaulac.
But the structure of international organizations like the UN, he recalls, was “designed and structured around certain dominant powers, with, first and foremost, the United States”, and have rules that are difficult to apply if the superpower becomes a “rogue state”…
