1/2/2025–|Last updated: 1/2/202501:39 PM (Mecca time)
The British Independent newspaper said that if India wants to achieve its dreams of ranking alongside the United States and China, it must maintain high growth rates and ensure that the benefits of development reach all residents, considering that this is not an easy task at all.
The newspaper recalled – in a report written by Shweta Sharma – former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that India will rise to become a global superpower by 2050, explaining that there will be 3 great powers in the middle of this century, which are the United States, China, and India, and all other countries will remain small. In comparison.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set similar aspirations, saying India will achieve “advanced” status by 2047, and vowing to make his country the “third largest economic superpower” by the end of his third term, though he made the pledge ahead of a disappointing set of election results that… It saw him lose his absolute majority in June 2024.
Most expectations of India’s future power are based on two simple facts: that it has now surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world, and that its $3 trillion economy is already the fifth largest economy, and is growing at a faster rate than any other major country, according to the author.
Inequality
In addition to the economy, India’s importance has risen at the geopolitical level, as the United States courtes it as a counterweight to China in the Asia-Pacific region, and at the same time it maintains strong relations with Russia, which means that it has carved out a position that makes it a model for other countries of the Global South, but Is diplomatic independence enough to create great power status, or is it the ability to impose power abroad that determines hegemony?
Although India overtook the United Kingdom as the world’s fifth-largest economy in 2023, and analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that it will overtake Japan and Germany to reach third place by 2027, its economy is witnessing its slowest growth in the past two years, which weakens the economic outlook.
However, the high GDP growth numbers are not consistent with other economic indicators such as employment rates, private consumption and export performance. In the 12 months leading up to August 2024, India’s total merchandise trade was worth US$1.1 trillion, the same level as it was Two years ago.
It will be difficult for India – according to the author – to claim superpower status as long as it is classified as a lower middle-income country, based on a per capita income of about $2,400, and the World Bank estimates that it will take another 75 years for the average income to reach… In India to a quarter of the average income in the United States.
In its 2024 report, the Global Inequality Lab found that the current golden age of Indian billionaires has led to a massive increase in income inequality, placing India among the most unequal countries globally, surpassing the United States, Brazil and South Africa.
A shocking indicator
According to the economists who conducted the study, the income gap between the rich and the poor in India widened to the extent that the distribution of income in India was more equitable during British colonial rule than it is today.
French economist Thomas Piketty said that India “should be active in taxing the rich” in order to better distribute wealth, but eliminating economic inequality does not appear to be an important political goal for Modi, who has been accused of maintaining close ties with the country’s billionaires. .
Former diplomat Shyam Saran claimed that India has great potential based on its population, economic size, and a large pool of scientific and technical talent, but its ranking in the Human Development Index is appalling, as it ranks 122nd out of 191 countries, and therefore these contradictions must be taken into account when considering… Consider the possibility of India becoming the next superpower.
Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region, says India’s economy needs to grow by about 6% each year to become as big as China by 2050, while China’s growth rate will slow by up to 1% from 2035 onwards. Is this possible?” With the decline in Indian growth in the third quarter.
Alicia Garcia Herrero pointed out that the challenges of becoming a superpower are not only technology and infrastructure. They include building a mature society with well-functioning institutions that are not overly influenced by the political party that rules the country.
The newspaper explained that India has shown in its leadership of the G20 that it is taking its role as a major power, but when it comes to what other countries want from a major power, India is still far from being able to provide it, whether it is aid, foreign investments, trade, or that kind of thing. .
