Kiev- On the morning of the first day of 2025, Ukraine announced the cessation of Russian gas transfers to Moldova and European countries through its territory, for the first time since 1967.
An event that the Minister of Energy, Herman Haloshenko, described as “historic,” and linked it to the interest of national security, especially in light of the Russian war on his country, which is approaching the end of its third year.
The largest transportation system
With this decision, the second largest gas transportation network in Europe (after Russia) and one of the largest global networks will stop operating, after it was a major and almost sole means of exporting Russian gas for decades.
Transport networks in Ukraine represented 95% of the transport and export routes built by the Soviet Union. Its length is approximately 37 thousand kilometers, and includes:
- Two main pipelines
- More than 120 compression stations
- 13 huge underground warehouses
Thus, it has maintained itself as the best infrastructure equipped with everything needed for transmission and distribution operations in Europe.
The capacity of these networks to transport gas to Europe reached 100 billion cubic meters about 15 years ago, but the entry of Kiev and Moscow into crises of confidence and various political and military crises prompted Russia to search for alternatives, and led to a decline in the flow to reach about 40 billion after 2015, and it reaches To about 15 billion in 2023.
Affected countries
Through the “Uzhhorod” line, named after the border province in the far southwest of Ukraine, Russian gas flowed to Moldova, as well as to Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria, and from there to other countries in the European Union.
According to the International Energy Agency, Ukrainian transportation networks met 65% of Slovakia and Austria’s need for Russian gas, and about 80-85% of Hungary’s need.
Since these countries were the ones who benefited the most from gas transit, they are today the most affected by its cessation, especially in light of the scarcity of alternative roads and sources. Its prices have risen since the beginning of the Russian war on Ukraine by rates that have actually reached 450%.
Ukrainian pressure paper
What is striking about the new crisis is that Ukraine – for the first time – insists on refusing to extend the transit agreement with Russia, unlike what was the case in the crises of previous years.
To explain this, Al Jazeera Net spoke with economic analyst Ihor Burakovsky, director of the Institute of Economic Research and Consulting in Kiev, who said: “The war imposed new conditions. The Nord Stream 2 project no longer exists, and the Turkish Stream does not exist.” It meets all Russian export needs.”
He continued: “Ukraine’s control over the gas transportation node in the city of Sodzha in the Russian Kursk Province also complicated the Russians’ opportunities for export, and that is why Ukrainian networks have returned to becoming a major avenue for them, despite all the disputes, and everything that is said to the contrary.”
Burakovsky believes that “Ukraine has thus transformed the transfer of gas from a previous means of blackmailing and pressuring it, into a pressure card in its favor this time, because it realizes the Russian and European need together. Thus, it is pushing Russia to make concessions to stop the war, and pushing Western capitals to exert more pressure on Russia.” Moscow, and provide more support to Kiev in its war.”
“Ukraine has nothing to lose”
Based on the assumption of this reality, it seems that Ukraine is moving forward, regardless of the possibility that its transportation networks will be bombed, or that they will turn into “scrap,” or that relations between it and some countries will worsen.
Expert Burakovsky told Al Jazeera Net: “Let’s be objective. Ukraine has nothing to lose. Gas transportation operations in recent years have become more like a major service we provide to Russia, which has attacked our country, and its revenues were and are still unfair and insulting to Ukraine.”
He added: “For example, the last agreement stipulated the transfer of 225 billion cubic meters over 5 years in exchange for 7.2 billion dollars, but Russia only transferred 55 billion in 2020, and much less than that after the start of the war, on which we began to spend exponentially.”
He continued: “Despite all of that, Russia refused to pay almost half of what we were waiting for, and Kiev was forced to prosecute it internationally,” referring to the Stockholm court’s decision in February 2018, forcing Gazprom to pay $2.56 billion to Naftogaz. “Ukrainian”.
Regarding the future of transportation networks, Burakovsky said: “I do not rule out that Russia will destroy it if it does not decide to stop the war. The Ministry of Energy said that it will be used for transportation and storage locally. I hope so, and I believe that the country will actually need it if it decides to increase its local gas production, which has reached 20 billion cubic meters annually before the war.
Find alternatives
It seems that Ukraine no longer cares about the positions and needs of the affected neighboring countries, at a time when experts rule out putting any pressure on it to sign a new agreement with Russia.
Writer and political analyst, Oleksandr Bali, told Al Jazeera Net: “Most European countries understand the importance of staying away from dealing with Russia, including Germany, which was a partner with Moscow in the “Nord Stream 2” project across the Baltic Sea, and now considers it a big mistake.”
He added: “The European Commission understands Ukraine, and even Austria remains silent despite its damage, because it realizes the importance of searching for alternatives. The biggest criticism currently comes from Slovakia and Hungary, which were and still are countries that refuse to support Ukraine and consider it guilty before Russia.”
The writer adds: “Ukraine, which was importing Russian gas more than them all (about 60 billion cubic meters annually before 2014), has searched for alternatives since November 2015, and has succeeded in doing so regardless of the new prices.”
He continued, “They must do that as well. It does not make sense to put the interests of countries that harm us before our own interests in times of war.”
