Damascus- “My husband and I received this news with pleasure, and we hope that the new government will be able to increase salaries according to what I spoke about, as our salaries during the Assad era were not enough to cover the household expenses for more than a week.”
With these words, Nisreen (37 years old), an employee in a school in the Damascus countryside, commented on the statement of the Commander-in-Chief of the Military Operations Department, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, regarding the new administration’s intention to raise the salaries of public sector employees by 400% during the next stage.
She added: “If this increase is disbursed, and the exchange rate of the lira is fixed at a certain limit, we will then be able to buy some of our needs that we have postponed purchasing for years due to weak salaries and their inability to buy needs that go beyond food and drink.”
A few days ago, caretaker Prime Minister Muhammad al-Bashir said, in an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, that there is no fear for the salaries of employees in the public sector, which will be disbursed on the specified dates, pointing to the government’s study of increasing these salaries to suit living challenges.
For his part, the Minister of Economy in the caretaker government, Basil Abdel Aziz Abdel Hanan, said in a statement to the media on Monday that the country is in a transitional phase from “a totalitarian socialist economy and a system of corruption to a free, competitive and open economic system, in which there is no monopoly or domination by Before the security services, which will greatly encourage attracting investments to the country,” which will help the government implement the salary increase plan.
The need is urgent
Syrians – whom Al Jazeera Net met – commented on the news of the expected salary increase, describing it as necessary and very urgent.
Muhammad (46 years old), a worker in the Damascus municipality, said that he was forced to work an additional job after his official work day in order to be able to support his family of 4 members.
He added in an interview with Al Jazeera Net: “I hope that the new government is able to take a step of this kind, as the Syrians are in dire need of it, and I personally suffer from severe lower back pain, and I long to stop working in the restaurant after work, as standing for a long time to serve customers is no longer appropriate.” “For my health.”
As for Sawsan, an employee in a government institution in the Damascus countryside, she told Al Jazeera Net that the salary of $125 after the supposed increase is considered a qualitative leap compared to the salary of $25 that public sector employees received during the era of the ousted Syrian regime, but it is “compared to the significant increase witnessed in commodity prices.” The basic services remain inadequate and do not cover the entire monthly expenses of the individual or family.”
The prices of some basic goods and services have risen in an unprecedented manner over the past few days. For example, the price of a loaf of bread was 4,000 liras instead of 1,000 liras at the beginning of December, and the price of a home gas cylinder was 210,000 liras ($14) instead of 126. One thousand ($8) at the beginning of the month, at a time when public transportation fees between cities and towns within one governorate doubled.
Possibility of implementing the increase decision
Syrian economic experts have conflicting opinions about the possibility of raising employee salaries by 400%.
Syrian economic expert and researcher at the London School of Economics, Zaki Mahshi, ruled out the availability of sufficient revenues for the government to cover the expenses of this decision.
He explained this in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, saying, “This increase is large, and the mass of salaries and wages for employees in the public sector last year was about 420 million dollars annually, and if the increase was 400%, then we are talking here about 1.6 billion dollars, and this is a large amount. We do not know how it will be done.” Covering it, in light of the presence of many tax exemptions provided by the new government, and the cancellation of many customs duties.”
The economist talked about other reasons, such as:
- Absence of additional revenues for the state to increase the budget.
- There will be no commercial movement, investments, or capital attraction, at least for the foreseeable period, to support the state treasury.
- Government officials talk about the weakness of foreign currency reserves and that they are very few, and therefore the pumping of this amount will be in Syrian pounds and without support from the reserves.
- This injection of Syrian pounds will have negative effects, such as horrific inflation, and the insufficient increase to cover inflation in prices.
The expert believes that the number of workers in the public sector is likely to decrease in the coming period after the dissolution of the security and military institutions, but “however, the increase will remain very large, and not covered by current public revenues.”
He goes on to say that these increases “may be covered in one case by external support from friendly countries.”
On the other hand, Khaled Al-Tirkawi, a Syrian economist and researcher at the Jusoor Center for Studies and Research, believes that there is a possibility for the new government to cover salaries even after the increase.
He said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, “The Ministry of Finance currently has the necessary funds available to pay salaries at the level of $100 per month for each employee for several months, with the possibility of covering these salaries for a full year next year 2025.”
In turn, Minister Abdel Hanan indicated, in a statement to the media on Monday, that the currently available resources of institutional fees, port and crossing traffic, and other resources have begun to enter the state treasury, in addition to an expected economic movement in the next stage that will in turn give good revenues to the public treasury. Which will contribute to implementing the decision to raise salaries.
Pros and cons of the decision
Experts agree that although the 400% salary increase is a positive step, it will not be enough to meet the needs of millions of Syrians who live below the poverty line.
Former professor at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Aleppo, Firas Shabo, says that the decision has positives and negatives, but it must be taken. “The people are exhausted and the employee’s salary does not exceed $10 in some cases, so this increase will not make a big difference, but it will contribute in one way or another to improving… Consumption and temporarily stimulate the purchasing power of citizens.
He indicated in his speech to Al Jazeera Net that this increase is insufficient, but the government does not have the ability to raise wages more than that at the present time, especially since the state’s general budget was approved a month ago, and determined the state’s spending, which does not have enough gold or dollar reserves. Or local production.
Shaabo added that the increase will have a partial, temporary, and short-term impact, but in the long term there will be inflation, a deterioration in the value of the lira, and a rise in prices, according to his expectations.
