A recent study issued by the German Bertelsmann Foundation, the results of which were reported by Bloomberg, stated that the German economy will need hundreds of thousands of immigrants annually to confront the negative effects resulting from the aging of the population.
The study indicated that Germany needs an annual influx of 288,000 immigrants until 2040, in the event of a rise in the participation rates of women and the elderly in the labor market. If these assumptions are not met, the need may reach 368,000 immigrants annually to prevent a significant contraction of the labor force and the impact of… That’s on economic growth.
Historical dependence on immigration
Figures indicate that the average net migration in the decade that ended in 2023 amounted to about 600,000 annually, as this period included noticeable increases due to the wars in Syria and Ukraine.
By comparison, immigration in the previous decade averaged only about 136,000 immigrants annually, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the German statistics agency.
Challenges of the German labor market
The study highlighted that the demographic change resulting from the retirement of large numbers of “baby boomers” will pose a major challenge to the German labor market.
“Priority must be given to developing the local workforce, both among indigenous people and migrants who have already arrived, and increasing participation in the labor market,” said Susanne Schulz, a migration expert at the Bertelsmann Foundation. “But this alone will not be enough to meet future labor demand until 2017.” 2040″.
For her part, the German News Agency quoted Suzanne as saying that obstacles must be reduced and conditions for migrants must be improved.
Without additional immigrants, the study expects the labor force to decline from its current number of 46.4 million workers to 41.9 million workers, or by about 10% due to demographic change.
This report comes at a time when Germany faces early elections early next year, as economic and immigration issues have become major themes in political campaigns, according to Bloomberg.
Extremist parties on the right and left demanding tighter restrictions on foreigners are seeing a noticeable rise in opinion polls, following the large influxes of refugees in recent years.
The report emphasized that immigration is not just an option but a necessity to continue stabilizing the labor market and supporting the German economy.
The study highlighted the challenge of balancing between absorbing more immigrants and developing local human resources, especially with the increase in anti-immigration calls that may lead to policies that affect the demographic and economic balance.
