Donald Trump has survived five trials, two impeachment processes, two assassination attempts and an electoral defeat. Yet he remains standing, his head held high.
This man is a political phenomenon. For nine years, he has led the world into a relentless whirlwind of disinformation, defamation, legal action and attacks on democracy. It would almost be entertaining if this game wasn’t so dangerous for humanity.
However, the Trump of 2024 is far from the Trump of 2016. He has lost his passion, his flair and his focus. Instead of looking straight ahead, his speech looks backward. It’s like the end of an era or the end of the show as the Cowboys Fringants* sang so well.
Pennsylvania: key to the election
According to the latest Léger survey, carried out for the New York PostTrump lags 4% nationally. He is also in difficulty in the key presidential states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
These three states have all voted on the same side for thirty years and Pennsylvania, with its 19 electors in the electoral college, is the most important of them. Whoever wins Pennsylvania often wins the election. In 2016, Trump won by 45,000 votes and lost to Biden in 2020 by 81,000 votes. The current gap in this state is 1%.
But beyond the polls, there is the momentumenthusiasm and above all financing, all to the advantage of Kamala Harris, a real shooting star in this campaign. Harris still has $236 million in the bank, compared to only $135 million for Trump for the last month of the campaign!
“It’s the economy, stupid”
The only real asset for Mr. Trump remains his image as a successful businessman. He remains seen as best placed to restore the economy and is ahead of Harris by 10% on this decisive issue.
“It’s the economy, stupid” is part of American political folklore: Americans vote with their wallets. The financial issue is always, here below, the question of the ballot box.
Trump managed to convince Americans that his years in the White House had been better economically than those of Biden, despite a disastrous record and a net loss of 2.7 million jobs.
The economy remains the last obstacle for Kamala Harris on the road to the White House. If she can narrow the gap on this existential question, she will become the first female president of the United States.
Never underestimate Trump
Donald Trump should never, ever, ever be underestimated. This man has nine lives, like a Springfield cat… And there is still this America that cries: more than 75 million voters still worship him.
One more season
Contrary to the song of the Dashing Cowboys, Trump will not “shut the follow and the lights”, because he still “needs to be enlightened”.
I’m announcing it to you first, there will be a tenth season of this reality show and it will be called: The Presidency or Prison.
*There are seven Cowboys Fringants song titles in this column. Could you recognize them?
