It’s about surfing for a few minutes, from WhatsApp to Instagram to TikTok, to see that young Americans are fully invested in this presidential election. And we owe this wave to Kamala Harris.
Not that the vice-president is the incarnation of these politicians “once in a generation» – à la John F. Kennedy or Barack Obama – which unite the major currents of the moment and offer an exhilarating vision of the future. Although there is a bit of that here.
It first benefits from the disinterest inspired in young voters by both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, two candidates the age of their grandfathers. What has been remarkable since Biden gave way to Harris is the loud desire of these young people to make a mark and be heard.
In this sense, this campaign evokes that of 2008 with Obama. A ferment that goes beyond politics. Young people exchange memes, recipes and dances which quickly become viral on the internet. And with the “Taylor Swift” effect, this energy ends up concentrating a little more and more around Kamala Harris.
They will go to vote, that’s what they promise
Take the excitement that this presidential race inspires. For several electoral cycles, the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School has been carrying out a benchmark survey of young voters.
What they answered was that 56% of them planned to vote on November 5. And if we focus on the safe values, i.e. young people already registered on the electoral lists, this commitment rises to 72%.
The “Kamala Harris” effect in all this? It appears in the gap in enthusiasm of young Democrats compared to young Republicans: 74% of young Democrats say they will “definitely” go to vote compared to 60% of young Republicans.
Voters will make the difference
Pollsters from the Harvard Kennedy School themselves describe the support of young people for the Democratic candidate as a “radical change” compared to a first poll carried out in the spring. Joe Biden had, at that time, a thirteen point lead over Donald Trump among voters aged 18 to 29. Harris increased that lead to 31 points.
We often hear that the Republican candidate succeeds in attracting an electorate of young men and in particular, to the surprise of many, young Blacks and young Latinos. However, according to pollsters from the legendary University of Massachusetts, enthusiasm for the vice-president’s candidacy is also reflected in the voting intentions of young men who, by seventeen points, support Harris rather than Trump.
Young African-Americans have also boarded this “Harris Express”: the gap in favor of Biden compared to Trump was 49% in the spring; he jumped to 70% with Harris in the race.
However, nothing compares to the fervor that Kamala Harris inspires in young American voters, an enthusiasm which takes on the appearance of a steamroller with 70% of voting intentions in her favor compared to 23% for Donald Trump.
Knowing that women have registered to vote and voted in higher proportions than men in every presidential election since 1980, it is not an exaggeration to believe that young female voters are likely to make the difference in some cases. Pivotal states, where the election will be, they keep telling us, won by dust.
