Will Donald Trump establish himself, in the first round, as the Republican candidate for the American presidential election? Will his opponents, struggling in the polls, create a surprise in Iowa? Answer in a month in this Midwestern state, which is getting the ball rolling for the 2024 primaries.
All are vying to dislodge Democratic President Joe Biden from the White House.
Despite his four criminal charges, some of which put him at risk of prison, former President Donald Trump currently has one of the largest leads ever seen over his Republican rivals.
We are going to make America great again,” he already promises during his meetings, echoing the slogan that brought him to power in 2016.
But all the American polls have proven it: the polls, especially at this stage, should be taken with a grain of salt. For the first time since his departure from the White House, the septuagenarian will receive a real judgment on January 15, that of the ballot box.
The privilege will go to the voters of the small rural state of Iowa who, as tradition dictates, have launched the primary season since 1972.
Haley and DeSantis in ambush
In this state, as across the country, Donald Trump still has a very loyal base, which brushes aside his legal troubles.
“I don’t even understand what he’s being accused of,” confides Adam Miller, a supporter of the former president met by AFP in Makoqueta, Iowa. “If he were accused of murder or corruption…” breathes the 61-year-old farmer.
On January 15 at 7 p.m., this tall, dark-haired man with glasses will meet with the inhabitants of his village, located three hours by car from Chicago, to vote in favor of the billionaire, accused among other things of electoral pressure.
That evening, six other Republicans will be in the running to block Donald Trump’s path. Only two seem to still have a chance.
On one side, the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, a conservative with shocking positions on immigration or LGBT+ people.
In his race for the White House, the forty-year-old has bet everything on Iowa, traveling through each of its 99 counties in a few months. The Republican can also count on the valuable sponsorship of Kim Reynolds, the governor of the state, very popular with voters.
But the popularity of this former naval officer has plummeted in recent months, while he is accused, among other things, of severely lacking charisma.
There is also the former ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, the new darling of the American right.
The fifty-year-old, former governor of South Carolina, stood out with a more moderate speech than her rivals on abortion, well aware that her party has had a series of electoral disappointments on this subject since the cancellation of the constitutional protection of the right to abortion in the country.
New Hampshire, Nevada
Throughout their campaign, Nikki Haley, like Ron DeSantis, was very careful not to attack Donald Trump too much, for fear of offending his supporters.
Both are peaking at around 12% in the polls, far from the former president’s 60%.
But observers do not rule out the possibility of one or the other creating a surprise and eating into part of the stormy Republican’s dizzying lead.
“If Donald Trump achieves anything other than a landslide victory, he will appear much more vulnerable in the race for the Republican nomination,” Wendy Schiller, a political scientist at Brown University, told AFP.
The following week, the highly orchestrated ballet of the primaries will take the candidates to New Hampshire, bordering Canada, then to the casino state, Nevada, and to South Carolina at the end of February.
In turn, the 50 states of the Union will vote until June to allocate their quotas of delegates to the candidates for the national convention in July, which will nominate a Republican for the presidential election in November.
What about the Democrats?
Already with the official support of his party, outgoing President Joe Biden, 81, should, barring any major surprises, be designated in August in Chicago as the Democratic contender.
And this, despite repeated criticism of his age.
Two candidates, Minnesota elected official Dean Phillips and bestselling author Marianne Williamson, are vying to dethrone him, although their chances do not seem realistic.
