For most Americans, tonight’s debate is as welcome as a visit to the dentist.
Even though the campaign has been underway for a long time, for many inattentive voters this will be the first opportunity to take the pulse of a race that very few wanted to relive.
Firsts
This debate will be unprecedented in several ways. First, the candidates have dumped the committee that had the mandate to organize it. This allowed the exclusion of party pooper Robert F. Kennedy.r. So much the better, because the distraction it would have introduced could only have harmed the objective of clarifying the choice between those who have a real chance of winning.
It is also the first debate held so early in the campaign. This suits Biden, who needs to dispel the image of weakness that his opponent has managed to stick to him. This image, Trump and the right-wing media have cultivated it so well that Biden will easily be able to overcome expectations.
Such a hasty debate risks being forgotten on voting day, but it will set the tone for the period of underground mobilization of activists during the summer.
Two protagonists on the defensive
The debate will be the first in the modern era in which both participants have a record to defend. The challenge is unique for Biden because the problems of his administration are fresh in voters’ minds, while many of those of Trump’s term have faded into obscurity.
This will also be the first debate to feature a convicted felon. This is tricky for Biden. He can score points with those who are unfamiliar with Trump’s troubles with the law. On the other hand, overdoing it could risk giving credence to Trump’s narrative that he is the victim of a manipulated justice system.
The debate format, where candidates will face an empty studio and microphones will be muted outside of speaking time, favors Biden. CNN’s hosts, however, have agreed not to act as fact-checkers, allowing Trump to immerse his audience in the parallel universe of alternative facts.
A first TikTok debate
It will also be one of the first presidential debates to reach its audience largely in the form of short video clips designed to influence those who get their news through TikTok or Instagram.
This will lead to predictable scenes. Trump’s strategy is to “flood the area with sh-t,” in the crude words of his adviser Steve Bannon. It will produce clips where his word salads appear to his supporters as strokes of genius, especially if he manages to generate enough confusion to unbalance Biden.
Biden, for his part, will try to make Trump lose his temper and bring back to the electorate’s memory his chaotic and uncontrolled character.
Most often, this search for the murderous clip will be to the detriment of a substantial and truly informative debate.
Finally, we must remember that presidential debates are rarely decisive. Even if we see a knockout, there will be 18 weeks of campaign left. In politics, a week is an eternity. It’s a long time, 18 eternities.
