Some recent polls in key states signal difficulties for Biden’s re-election, but he also has significant advantages.
It’s no secret that the November election will be close and played out in the six key states where Biden bested Trump in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
A recent survey from New York Times suggests that Trump is ahead in these states (except Wisconsin), giving Democratic supporters serious headaches.
Without falling into jovialism, Biden’s position is not as uncomfortable as it seems.
- Listen to international politics expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac’s show via QUB :
Two “calcified” partisan blocs
First, the choices are almost entirely fixed. Voters who are still likely to change their minds are few in number, but also poorly informed and poorly engaged.
This has three main consequences.
First, the turbulence of the campaign has only a marginal effect on the vote. Opinions about the candidates are firmly anchored in people’s minds and the only change that could have a major impact in this regard would be a criminal conviction of Trump.
Even if he is slightly behind, Biden is not in danger, like his opponent, of seeing the floor collapse under his feet.
Bright tomorrows?
The second fact to remember is that the undecided who wake up to political reality in the coming months will react to the immediate economic situation.
One of the few constants we observe in American politics is that voters have short memories. Much of the discontent against Biden is due to persistent inflation, but there are signs of improvement (see this week’s figure).
If the job market remains strong and prices stabilize by the fall, the mood of the electorate could change. By making more major investment announcements, as he did recently in Wisconsin, Biden could receive just enough credit to regain the lead.
The ground game
Finally, in a context where few voters change their minds, the key to victory lies in mobilizing the vote. On this front, the Democrats have demonstrated since 2018 that they are a step ahead.
To win with what is called the “ground game”, you need money and a solid organization. Democratic coffers are well stocked and the Biden camp has already established campaign offices in every corner of key states to ensure all their supporters are duly registered and to get out the vote.
Polls suggest that Trump’s lead is made up of voters who have a low propensity to vote, making this organizational advantage all the more important.
In short, for Biden, the game is far from over.
Quote of the week
“Pick your dates, Donald. I heard you’re free on Wednesdays.”
-Joe Biden, in a video message where he “trolls” Donald Trump to encourage him to debate with him, making fun of his troubles with the law.
Number of the week
3.4%
The inflation rate fell in April in the United States, after two months of slight increases. This news, which surprised most analysts who predicted a higher figure, propelled stock markets higher and could do the same for Joe Biden’s campaign if the trend continues. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
The lie detector
What we said:
“Here is what Joe Biden has done since October 7: sanctions and an embargo on arms exports to Israel; an easing of sanctions and an end to the embargo on arms exports to Iran.”
-Tom Cotton, Republican senator from Arkansas, press conference, May 9.
FAKE
The only notable change in Biden’s policy toward Israel is a warning that if Israeli forces used heavy artillery in the urban areas of Rafah, the United States could restrict the supply of such parts (The newspaper, May 8). This is not an embargo. As for Iran, the Biden administration tightened its sanctions following the attacks on Israel last April and the end of the embargo imposed by the UN on arms deliveries to Iran dates from October 2020.
