Nothing is decided, but an overwhelming majority of polls point to a clear advantage for Donald Trump.
• Read also: Trump or Biden? The countdown has begun…
Not a popularity contest
On May 4, the only certainty lies in the result of the popular vote. Like in 2020 and just like Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden will get more votes.
Even if the participation rate fell or voters regretted their 2020 choice to favor the Republican candidate, the comfortable margin, seven million, would not suddenly disappear.
In this regard, it is worth remembering that the last two Republican presidents lost the popular vote. The candidates know that the election is decided more on the number of cumulative electors.
To reach the magic figure of 270 electors (out of 538), it is therefore less the number of votes than the number of States (and their demographic weight) that must be considered. This is where Donald Trump has the lead.
- Listen to the American political column with Professor Luc Laliberté via QUB :
Of the 50 states that will vote on November 5, we already know the preferences of more than 40 of them. It is therefore a handful of states, the swing states, which will determine the outcome of the battle.
When we turn our attention to these states, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, we quickly see that the Republican is ahead in the majority of them.
It is therefore Joe Biden who faces the most difficult journey. He needs to win in three or four of these states to obtain a second term. It is currently behind schedule in at least four of them.
Courts and media
The 2024 campaign is historic. Never in the history of the country has a presidential candidate faced such a barrage of major trials. Donald Trump must therefore maximize the time spent outside the court.
He has done so effectively until now, increasing the attacks against the “deep state” of which he is the victim. This strategy serves him well, as does the exploitation of his favorite themes: the economy, border security and immigration.
Launched into the race for news and ratings, the American media provide the Republican with free publicity that he knows how to put to good use.
If Donald Trump comes out on top, knows how to galvanize his supporters and attract the spotlight, he must also consider a determining factor.
His partisan base alone is insufficient to beat Biden. He will have to attract disappointed Republicans, but, above all, independent voters. Besides his convoluted position on abortion, he has offered them nothing so far.
THE QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“It always depends on the honesty of the results…”
-Donald Trump in response to a question about possible use of violence after the November 5 election, Time Magazine, April 30
THE NUMBER OF THE WEEK
US$9,000 Amount of the sanction imposed on Donald Trump for not having respected the gag order associated with his trial.
WHAT HE SAID
“I accomplished what I said I was going to do and even more than I said I would. I built more walls (along the Mexican border) than I thought were necessary. »
-Donald Trump in interview with Time Magazine, April 30
The lie detector
FAKE On 3,145 kilometers of border, the Trump administration has erected 725 kilometers of wall. Of these 725 km, barely 83 km were new. During the 2016 campaign, he also promised that the costs would be borne by Mexico, which is not the case.
Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection
