Wall Street remains in the green before the market this Thursday, following a battery of statistics across the Atlantic including a new disappointing inflation indicator. The S&P 500 still gained 0.3%, the Dow Jones 0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Nvidia is expected to decline, while Apple is recovering slightly on positive announcements from Foxconn. Today’s figures include US retail sales and the producer price index, while the markets had reacted favorably the day before yesterday to mixed figures for US consumer price inflation for the month of February.
Operators are still closely monitoring the Nvidia file, which is very volatile after the historic records recorded during the session on Friday.
Bitcoin is at around $72,700 today, up nearly 9% over a week. On the Nymex, a barrel of WTI crude rose 1% to $80.6. An ounce of gold consolidates by 0.5% to $2,169. The dollar index changes little against a basket of currencies (+0.1%).
According to today’s government report in the United States, retail sales for the month of February 2024 showed an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous month, against +0.7% consensus. Excluding automobiles, they increased by 0.3% against the market consensus of 0.4%. Excluding automobiles and gasoline, on the other hand, sales increased by 0.3%, a little more than expected.
The producer price inflation figures also came as an unpleasant surprise, since the producer price index increased by 0.6% in February, compared to the previous month, against 0.3% consensus and 0 .3% a month before – an increase of 1.6% over one year in February against 1.1% consensus. Excluding food and energy, the producer price index increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month against 0.2% consensus. Over one year, the index excluding food and energy increased by 2%.
Finally, weekly US unemployment claims for the week ended March 9 stood at 209,000, compared to 218,500 in FactSet consensus and 210,000 a week earlier, in revised reading.
Business inventories for the month of January will also be announced today (3 p.m.).
Finally, tomorrow, for Four Witches Day, investors will follow the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index for the month of March (consensus -8), import and export prices for the month of February, industrial production numbers for February (consensus stable), and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for March (consensus 77.4).
According to the FedWatch tool this Monday, the probability that the Fed will leave its rates unchanged at the highest in more than 20 years on March 20, between 5.25 and 5.50%, on the occasion of its next monetary meeting, is located at 99%. The probability of an additional status quo on May 1, at the next meeting, reaches 93%. The probability of a first rate cut on June 12 remains substantial, while the ‘probability’ of status quo in June stands at 31%…
Fed officials did not comment this week, due to the ‘quiet period’ preceding the March 20 monetary meeting. However, Janet Yellen, American Secretary of the Treasury, who is not bound by this obligation, made some comments yesterday dismissing the idea of a stagflation scenario and envisioning a gradual decline in American inflation.
Among the major investment banks in the market, note that Bank of America has just raised its 2024 earnings per share estimate on the S&P 500 to $250, compared to $235 previously. Goldman Sachs specifies for its part that risk assets should continue to grow, driven by strong economic growth in the United States and a slowdown in inflation. Finally, speaking at an Australian summit, JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon indicated that he did not think the Fed should start cutting rates in June.
In corporate news on Wall Street, Lennar and UiPath released their quarterly financial results last night, while Adobe (after the close), Dollar General, Ulta Beauty (after the close), Wheaton Precious Metals and Dick’s Sporting Goods announce this Thursday. Jabil finally publishes on Friday.
Values
Dollar General, the American discount retailer, announced fourth-quarter sales down 3.4% to $9.9 billion, for an annual turnover of $38.7 billion. At constant stores, activity increased by 0.7% over the last quarter of the financial year. Quarterly diluted earnings per share fell 38% to $1.83. Thus, the group exceeded expectations for the quarter ended with the increase in traffic. The outlook is also solid, with the group counting on like-for-like growth of 2 to 2.7% for the year started, compared to a consensus of 1.4%.
Lennar, the American real estate builder, announced revenues of $7.3 billion for its first fiscal quarter ending in February 2024, up 13% year-on-year, but below the consensus which was around $7.4 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.57, compared to $2.12 for the corresponding period last year, and $2.21 consensus. The Miami group’s net profit increased by 21% to $719 million, while earnings per share increased by 25%. New orders increased by 28% to 18,176 homes. Quarterly deliveries increased by 23% to 16,798 units. The group is therefore benefiting from sustained demand for new housing and historically low supply. For the current quarter, Lennar expects deliveries ranging from 20,900 to 21,300 units.
UiPath, which presents itself as the leader in RPA and automation and emphasizes its activities linked to artificial intelligence, published results last night on Wall Street that exceeded expectations. The group dear to Cathie Wood revealed adjusted earnings per share of 22 cents for its fourth quarter, compared to 15 cents a year before and 15 cents of consensus. Quarterly revenues totaled $405 million (+31%), or 6% above consensus. Adjusted free cash flow reached $146 million. For the just-started first fiscal quarter of 2025, revenues are expected between $330 and $335 million, for adjusted operating profit of $55 million. For the full year, revenues are expected to be between $1.555 and $1.56 billion, while adjusted operating profit is expected to be around $295 million.
Fisker, the small American manufacturer of electric cars, fell 46% last night after Wall Street closed. The group has reportedly hired financial advisors and lawyers to prepare for a potential bankruptcy filing, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter. The group has struggled to increase sales amid stagnant demand for electric vehicles in the United States and issued a going concern warning last month, the newspaper recalls. In its fourth-quarter earnings report released in February, Fisker said there were substantial doubts about its ability to continue as a going concern… At the time, Fisker said it was in discussions with an existing investor about the possibility of investing more in the business to keep it afloat. The manufacturer also announced that it would reduce its workforce by 15%.
Apple gained a little ground before the market on Wall Street this Thursday, while the Taiwanese giant Foxconn, its major supplier, indicated that it anticipated a significant increase in its revenues in 2024, against a backdrop of increased demand for Apple products. artificial intelligence. Foxconn’s management had previously provided much more cautious forecasts for 2024. The group also announced results for its fourth quarter that exceeded market expectations, achieving net profit over the period that grew by more than 30% to 53.1 billion Taiwan dollars, or about 1.7 billion US dollars. A year earlier, at the same period, this profit was 40 billion Taiwan dollars.
In this fourth quarter, smartphones and other consumer electronics products represented 58% of revenues, while cloud and networking products including servers (rising sharply with AI) represented around a fifth of sales. . The group expects a slight decline in its revenues in the first quarter, but the trend should then be significantly more positive, since Foxconn therefore expects a significant increase in revenues over the whole year.
SentinelOne, an American cybersecurity group, landed on Wall Street this Thursday on guidance considered too short, and despite results that were higher than market expectations for its just-ended fourth fiscal quarter.
Under Armour, the sportswear footwear, clothing and accessories retailer, has announced the return of its founder Kevin Plank as CEO, in a fairly tense economic environment.
Tesla remains without relief before the market on Wall Street today, while the firm UBS has in turn reduced its price target on the file of the electric car giant, against a backdrop of concerns about deliveries and demand.
