Donald Trump’s primary victory comes with vulnerabilities. Joe Biden will have to seize the opportunity of the State of the Union speech to take the initiative in the real campaign which is only just beginning.
• Read also: Nikki Haley withdraws from race for Republican nomination
Voters in 15 states were invited to the polls on Tuesday for the most important day of the primary season. There were no big surprises.
To stay in the race, Republican Nikki Haley needed to increase her support. She didn’t succeed. She admitted defeat on Wednesday, probably after her backers told her they were turning off the tap.
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Mixed triumph for Trump
Unless Providence intervenes, voters will have to choose, despite themselves, between Trump and Biden in November.
On Tuesday night, Donald Trump delivered a lie-filled victory speech that Fox News called “low energy.” He then greeted Haley’s concession on Wednesday with his trademark “class” – which is to say none.
The vote for Haley reveals a modest but solid core of resistance to Trump in the Republican electorate. Trump presented himself to Republicans as if he were indeed president and they have long perceived him as the inevitable candidate. A good portion nevertheless voted against him and polls show that enough of them are determined not to support him in November to put his victory in serious doubt.
What did Trump do to rally these dissident Republicans? Nothing. His call for unity was essentially asking them to submit to the cult of his personality. It won’t work for Republicans who are fed up with his escapades and his run-ins with the law.
Another weakness for Trump at this point is the worrying state of his campaign treasury, as tens of millions of dollars have been diverted to pay his army of lawyers.
Challenges for Biden
On the Democratic side, Biden led by clearer margins and his party’s unity is in less doubt. All is not yet won. The polls are against him and he cannot ignore them.
Biden can’t do much about voters’ biggest concern about him, his age, but he can defuse it, especially if the election is framed as a choice between him and Trump, who is only slightly younger and who loses bits more often than not.
Biden will have to respond to the protest movements that emerged on his left during the primaries, in particular by qualifying his support for Israel and giving concrete follow-ups to the recent turn in favor of a ceasefire in Gaza.
In economic matters, Biden will have to use his party’s resources and his presidential megaphone to realign perceptions with the reality of the American economy which is performing extremely well according to several indicators.
For this, the State of the Union speech will be decisive. Biden will have to clearly outline the achievements of his administration and he will then have to drive the point home in the coming weeks by highlighting the contrasts between him and his opponent.
Tonight, the real presidential campaign begins.
