The TAPI project to transport Turkmen gas through Afghan territory to Pakistan and India is one of the most important and long-awaited projects in Central Asia.
Turkmenistan has been trying for years to achieve its dream, but security reasons in the region and differences between the participating countries prevented this.
After the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban movement demanded that Turkmenistan resume work on laying pipes and begin work inside Afghan territory.
The Afghan Interior Ministry formed a special force to protect and guard the project, and the Afghan government led by the Taliban movement will be one of the main winners if it is achieved, because the project generates huge sums of money for its treasury.
According to Afghan government sources, Russia and Iran do not want to transfer Turkmen gas to South Asian countries.
Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mottaki told Al Jazeera Net: “In the last visit to Turkmenistan, I asked the officials to start work on the gas transportation project, because the conditions are now favorable.”
Mottaki added, “We will provide full protection for the project and strive to make it successful. It is a regional project that links these countries and provides security and stability in addition to financial returns.”
Compete for the project
The construction of a gas pipeline was proposed in the 1990s, and the American companies Unical and Argentinian Bridas competed with each other to manage the gas pipeline, which has a length of 1,814 kilometers.
Unical was able – with the support of Washington – to sign a contract with the Taliban to invest in a gas transportation project from Turkmenistan in 1998, but it postponed the start of work under the pretext that the Taliban needed to form an internationally recognized government, in addition to regional competition.
Former Afghan Foreign Minister Wakil Ahmed Mutawakkil told Al Jazeera Net: “The government of Turkmenistan at the time was under Russian influence, and preferred the Argentine company Bridas. Iran wanted to extend pipelines through its territory, and Russia did not want an American company to undertake the work of the project, and regional competition prevented it.” Project execution”.
The administration of former US President Bill Clinton was interested in the project, and tried to persuade the Taliban to form a national government to begin work and receive financial aid from the World Bank.
The Minister of Mines in the first Taliban government, Ahmed Jan, traveled to the United States to discuss the project with Unical and American officials, but negotiations collapsed in July 2001, before the September 11 attacks and before the movement was overthrown.
After the events of September 11, planning for this project was resumed, in May 2002, and the presidents of Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, and Pakistan agreed to extend gas pipelines, and in 2008 India joined the project.
The gas pipeline agreement, signed by representatives of the participating countries in Islamabad on April 25, 2008, stipulated that construction work would begin in 2010 and be completed after 5 years, but the plan was not completed due to the security situation in Afghanistan.
On February 23, 2018, Afghanistan began drilling and building pipes, but the American withdrawal and the fall of the previous Afghan government caused the work to stop in Herat Province, neighboring Turkmenistan.
The rise of the Taliban to power led to discussing the future of the gas pipeline project again because the project has been associated with the Taliban name for 27 years.
The head of the Taliban’s political office, Suhail Shaheen, told Al Jazeera Net: “The gas transportation project is a long-term priority project, and is fully supported by the current government.”
The head of the Taliban’s political office added, “Since we came to power, officials from Turkmenistan have visited more than once to discuss the start of work, and we have provided assurances to secure the project within Afghan territory.”
The 1,814-kilometre-long pipeline will extend from Turkmenistan through Afghan and Pakistani territories to India. According to the 30-year contract, Turkmenistan will export up to 33 billion cubic meters of gas (90 million cubic meters per day) annually.
This quantity will be distributed between Afghanistan, India and Pakistan, with India and Pakistan each receiving 38 million cubic meters, and Afghanistan 14 million cubic meters of gas. According to estimates, the cost of implementing this plan will amount to about 12 billion dollars.
The length of the gas pipeline in Turkmenistan is 147 km and 735 km in Afghanistan. It passes through 4 provinces – Herat, Farah, Helmand and Kandahar – and will reach India after 800 km in Pakistan.
The former spokesman for the Afghan Ministry of Mines, Mohieddin Nouri, told Al Jazeera Net: “12 pressure pumps will be installed on the pipeline route, 5 of which are located inside Afghan territory, and their value is one billion US dollars. This amount of gas will help play an important role in the gas sector in Afghanistan.
Under the agreement between the four countries, Afghanistan will receive $500 million annually for pipelines from its territory, in addition to providing job opportunities for more than 12,000 people.
Former Undersecretary of the Ministry of Mines, Akbar Barakzai, confirms to Al Jazeera Net: “The project will provide Afghanistan, for a period of 30 years, with a large amount of gas, and it will obtain it in 3 stages: In the first decade, Afghanistan’s share will be 500 million cubic meters annually, in the second, one billion cubic meters, and in the third decade, 1.5 billion cubic meters.” cube”.
Geopolitical challenges
According to experts, the project to transport Turkmen gas through Afghan territory has two economic and political goals. Its economic goal is to meet the growing energy needs of about 2.3 billion people living in South Asia and China, and its political goal is to reduce tension and help normalize relations in the region.
International relations expert Abdul Khabir Kaker told Al Jazeera Net: “In fact, the gas transportation project, or what is known locally as (TAPI), is more than just a plan, and the first step is to unify the region, but at the present time its implementation faces two challenges. The first: the position of the international community on Recognition of the Taliban government, and the second is bilateral relations between India and Pakistan.”
The financing of this project has always been in question, because it requires $12 billion. The Asian Development Bank agreed to finance the project, but the lack of recognition of the Taliban government caused its funding to be stopped.
A source – who preferred to remain anonymous – told Al Jazeera Net, “The issue of non-recognition of the current Afghan government is worrying, and the bank has stopped financing it, but the project is important for Turkmenistan and it is looking forward to financing it at least in Afghanistan.”
On the other hand, observers believe that the position of Russia and Iran may complicate the scene, because they both consider that this plan competes with their desired plans and they export energy to South Asian countries, and Iran wants to sell its gas to Pakistan and India as part of the peace pipeline plan, and that Russia and Iran are two countries. They have an impact on regional developments, especially Afghanistan.
Writer and political researcher Abdullah Kamwal told Al Jazeera Net: “The United States supports the project to transport Turkmen gas through Afghan territory to reduce the dependence of South Asian countries on Russian and Iranian gas, and Pakistan cannot ignore Washington’s position on energy projects in the region, and that Iran and Russia are currently subject to international sanctions.” “.
Economic and geopolitical importance
The Turkmen gas transportation project is undoubtedly one of the most important and long-awaited projects in Central Asia, and its geographical, economic and geopolitical impacts in the region cannot be ignored, and Tehran sees the project as competing with the Iranian peace pipelines.
On the other hand, the project could lead to a power struggle between India and China, while the Taliban-led Afghan government will be one of the main winners with its many benefits, from compensating for its energy deficit and strengthening the international position.
Researcher and political writer Haroun Nouri told Al Jazeera Net: “The gas transportation project benefits the countries participating in it, and Turkmenistan benefits from it in increasing income and diversifying exports.”
Pakistan and India – as Nouri adds – “compensate for the energy deficit, and Afghanistan will serve as a land bridge linking the energy of Central Asia to its south. In addition, it (the project) plays an important role in the economic development of Afghanistan.”
