Donald Trump’s time in politics will have been a veritable gold mine for historians and constitutionalists.
His numerous escapades and multiple trials will help to better delineate the contours of the separation of powers, as well as the limits of presidential power.
On Tuesday, an appeals court ruled on the question of presidential immunity claimed by the former president.
A major failure for the Republican candidate
The three judges questioned concluded that Trump could not walk away from his trial which concerns his role in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.
In this case, he becomes citizen Trump again. He can of course enjoy all the rights of a defendant, but he does not enjoy complete immunity.
Many readers are sometimes interested in the alleged ideology of the judges who rule. Two were appointed by Biden and one by Trump. Their decision is unanimous.
What’s next? I would first like to point out that this is a big victory for special prosecutor Jack Smith as well as an important endorsement for Judge Tanya Chutkan, whom Donald Trump accused of partisanship.
Donald Trump can now appeal his case to all judges of the relevant federal court, just as he can appeal to the Supreme Court. In either case, nothing obliges them to agree to hear the case.
The best scenario for the former president would be that the highest court agrees to rule, but that the study of the file or the judgment does not occur until after the November 5 election.
His nightmare would be that the decision announced Tuesday would be final and that the trial would begin in the coming weeks. Despite all the recourses available to Trump, we can, even if the deadlines are tight, imagine a decision before November 5. I remind here that according to a recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, 53% of voters in pivotal states would refuse to vote for 45e president if he is found guilty.
Both in 2016 and 2020, the results of the elections in the pivotal states were decisive and close. A guilty verdict could deal a fatal blow to Trump.
The Supreme Court soon in the spotlight
It is this Thursday that the Supreme Court will consider the interpretation of section 3 of the 14e amendment, which is relied on to disqualify Donald Trump in Colorado. His name still appears on the ballot, but the final decision will depend on the court’s judgment.
The Republican candidate’s lawyers argue that Section 3, which prevents a person from being a candidate if he or she participated in an insurrection, clearly identifies certain offices, but that that of president does not appear in the list.
For its part, the suit alleges that the term “officer” includes the president. They will be happy to learn that in the judgment disclosed Tuesday, the term “officer” is used when referring to Trump. An omen?
