Donald Trump is moving like a steamroller on the path to the Republican nomination in November’s presidential election, but the first polls have revealed some vulnerabilities that could hinder his reconquest of the White House.
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The former president comes out of the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire crowned with clear victories against Nikki Haley, the only rival still in the race. But these successes mask concerns about his power of attraction among independents and moderate Republicans whom he needs to win against Democratic President Joe Biden in November.
Nearly half of New Hampshire voters are registered as independents, a group that closely reflects the mood in swing states that will play a key role in the presidential election. And they voted two to one in favor of Nikki Haley, more moderate than Donald Trump.
Another alarm signal for the Trumpist camp, a third of Republican voters in New Hampshire assured that they would not support Donald Trump on November 5, according to an exit poll.
A trend also at work in Iowa. Donald Trump won easily, but according to a poll by the local Des Moines Register newspaper, almost half of Nikki Haley’s supporters would vote for Joe Biden rather than the real estate mogul.
“A lot of people have portrayed Donald Trump’s result in Iowa as dominant, but I disagree,” says Kenneth Miller, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
“Favorable conditions”
“He started as the obvious leader and campaigned for two years without his main rivals saying anything unpleasant about him. We have the most favorable conditions there for primaries, but it barely exceeded 50% in Iowa.
In this state, Donald Trump faced two major candidates. In New Hampshire, he only had Nikki Haley facing him after the abandonment of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but there was no tidal wave in his favor (55%).
Some observers did not fail to ask questions about Donald Trump’s ability to mobilize beyond his most fervent base.
Ron DeSantis has rallied behind the businessman, but judges that old-fashioned Republicans will not support him against Joe Biden.
“When people who voted for (former President Ronald) Reagan in 1976 come to me — people who have been conservatives their whole lives — and say they don’t want to vote for Donald Trump again, then we have a problem “, did he declare.
The lack of appetite among moderate Republicans for the former president’s MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) brand was reflected at the polls.
Besides losing to Joe Biden in 2020, his party lost both houses of Congress during his term, and also suffered setbacks in the 2022 midterm elections.
Burnt earth
But Donald Trump does not seem ready to change strategy, to the delight of his most right-wing aficionados who applaud with both hands his speeches on the supposed economic collapse of America or illegal immigrants who would destroy the country.
His victory speech Tuesday was peppered with angry tirades, insults, conspiracy theories, including the unprecedented lie in U.S. history that he had not lost the 2020 presidential election.
This is not his only challenge since he presents himself weighed down by 91 charges and at least one trial in four could begin before November 5.
Voters were asked whether they would consider Donald Trump worthy of the presidential office if convicted. Just over a third of those in Iowa and nearly half of those in New Hampshire said no, according to exit polls.
In other words, while many people are ready to forgive him for everything, there are many who are not.
“Even if he manages to bring 80 to 90% (of voters) into line, our presidential elections have been so close recently that the slightest defection within his party could be fatal,” estimates political scientist Nicholas Creel, of Georgia College and State University.
