US President Donald Trump issued in his early days at the White House a series of executive statements and orders that have an impact on the American energy policy.
In his inauguration speech, Trump promised to announce a “national energy emergency” and use his powers to reduce their prices, fill in American strategic reserves, and export energy to all parts of the world.
The speed and scope of Trump’s directives and advertisements so far indicate that he emphasizes changing US energy policies, including the retreat of many predecessors’ efforts to enhance clean energy and reduce gas emissions that cause global global warming.
In their answer to 7 urgent questions, the Atlantic Council experts expect Trump Energy Agenda features:
1) What is the possible effect of Trump’s executive orders on the first day on energy?
The director of the Atlantic Global Energy Center, Red Blackmore, says that as expected, Trump’s return to the White House quickly confirmed that enabling energy production is an essential pillar of his mandate to manage inflation and enhance the priorities of the national security of the United States across the energy markets.
He adds that at the present time, the Trump plan “drilling, drilling, drilling” is still in its infancy, and the executive order to declare the state of national energy emergency pave the way to accelerate the permits and infrastructure of energy, but not before a period of study and exploration by the competent authorities, and as soon as this is completed The period, how to balance the oil and gas sector between a more lenient political environment and its obligations to capital revenues will significantly affect the path towards energy dominance.
As a result, we can see the immediate effect of the executive order to expand exploration instead of the boom in production.
The most important field remains how these efforts intersect with the extensive foreign policy and trade initiatives that the Trump administration has not yet established, and in this regard Trump has given a deadline until February 1, perhaps, before imposing expected customs definitions on major commercial partners of America, including So Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union.
This came in contrast to what he referred to during the election campaign by imposing these definitions on the first day of his assumption of the presidency.
According to Blackmore, the final composition of these policies may have a strong impact on the Trump agenda in the energy field, from securing supply chains and developing local manufacturing to expanding energy exports, and the way the administration chooses to deal with sanctions against Iran, Russia and Venezuela will form the global energy market.
But even with these other unknown factors, Trump’s first day in his position has made clear his commitment to maximizing energy policy contributions to the priorities of the economy and national security of the United States, according to Blackmore.
2) What does the state of national emergency in the United States in the field of energy mean?
David Goldwin, president of Goldwin Global Strategy, says that the declaration of the state of national energy emergency, and the long executive order to implement it shows the intention of the Trump administration to enhance fossil energy and the development of minerals, as well as punishing renewable energy initiatives and mitigating climate effects to the maximum extent.
However, it is important to understand this announcement as an intention and not a work, as the process of reviewing or canceling the regulations will take time and will be vulnerable to the legal challenge, as the desire to increase investment in oil and gas production will be driven by demand and possible returns on the new investment, which in turn will challenge The economic growth of the initial markets of the United States and the new tariffs, according to Goldwin.
Goldwin is likely that the decisions related to investment and renewable energy are driven by politics at the state level, facilities economy, and consumer expectations, and the American foreign policy will play from the expected sanctions to imposing the maximum pressure on Iran and the fate of the current licensing system for Venezuela and the implementation of sanctions on Russia, a major role in determining Gasoline prices for American consumers.
The expected policies by the new administration have raised these prices and not reduced them, and the matter is still in its infancy, while a few are still responsible for developing and implementing the aspirations of executive orders in their positions, and in general, publishing the news comes quickly, but the change comes slowly, according to What Golden said.
3) What does Trump’s energy agenda mean for competition with China?
The colleague at the Global Energy Center and the Indian and Guardian Ocean Security Initiative of the Atlantic Council, Joseph and Pesheter, is likely to determine Trump’s influence through geopolitical competition with China, and energy plays in this regard a major role, and 3 issues are highlighted: American energy exports, artificial intelligence, and advanced batteries.
Trump is seeking to gain geopolitical influence by strengthening oil and gas exports, raising American economic growth and strengthening energy security for America’s main allies and partners, and Trump’s policies appear to focus on increasing the production of local hydrocarbon instead of reducing demand, according to Wester.
He adds that although the two steps taken side by side would increase the growth of exports stronger, doubling America’s ability to export liquefied natural gas by almost 2028 would increase the complexity of the relationship with China (the largest gas importer in the world).
Artificial intelligence, which carries enormous economic, strategic and military capabilities, may prove that it is the most important factor in forming competition between America and China, according to Wester.
He explains that artificial intelligence requires intense consumption data centers, but the obstacle American network suffers from pressure due to the increasing demand even as the bureaucracy restricts the new supplies.
Trump’s ability to reform the transport policy and ensure a diverse and low -cost mix of energy if America has enough electricity to overcome China in the field of artificial intelligence, according to Wester.
Finally, advanced batteries are not only commercially important, but also have large military applications across uninhabited systems, submarines and electronic warfare systems, for example, the Ministry of Defense recently classified the Chinese Catl Catl Company for the batteries industry as a Chinese military company, perhaps because of the potential cooperation with the Chinese navy In building submarines with lithium ion batteries.
Trump’s effect in the energy field, partly, will be determined by America’s ability to outperform China in the field of advanced batteries, a technology with deep commercial and military applications, according to Wester.
4) What are the possible repercussions of Trump’s orders to enhance oil and gas production?
Brenda Shafer’s global Energy Center, a colleague of the Atlantic Energy Center, says that former US President Joe Biden stood up to issue new export permits for liquefied gas caused great damage to America’s reputation as a reliable energy supplier, and this greatly affected the planned access to the gas of Washington allies, Especially in Asia and Germany.
This prompted Japan to increase the imports of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and other producers in the Middle East, and the gas importers are looking for a long -term reliable supply, and the volatility in US energy policies with each electoral cycle indicates a lack of reliability.
Consequently, Trump’s cancellation of this stop is not sufficient to restore confidence among the gas buyers that future exports will not stop again by a different administration, according to Shafar.
Shafer explains that Trump’s cancellation of private taxes on methane and removing the bureaucracy that imposed on natural gas production will lead to an increase in investments in natural gas.
Increasing natural gas production is necessary for Trump’s plan to reduce inflation in America; Because it will reduce the price of natural gas, electricity, and almost all the produced goods, according to Shafar.
5) What do we expect from Trump about nuclear energy?
The Director of the Nuclear Energy Policy Initiative at the International Energy Center of the Atlantic Council, Jennifer T Gordon, is suggested that the Trump administration is optimistic about nuclear energy, and looks at it as a tool to unleash America’s energy dominance, and Trump is likely to want to compete in the global market against exports Russian and Chinese civil nuclear, the new administration is likely to want to meet the demand from countries with similar thinking on American nuclear energy technologies, including large light water reactors and the next generation technologies such as small normative reactors and fine reactors.
Trump has already appointed many supporters of nuclear energy for major roles, including Energy Minister Chris Wright, who is known as the CEO of Liberty Energy, operating in the field of natural gas, but he also served in the Board of Directors of the advanced reactors company Oklo, and in 2023 Wright signed a letter that supports nuclear energy .
The choices of other pro -nuclear energy administration include Wales Griffiths for the position of Undersecretary of the Ministry of Energy, who worked in Trump’s first state as a first adviser to the CEO of the American International Development Finance Corporation, where he played a role in lifting the institution’s ban on financing nuclear projects.
Trump chose former Congress member Brandon Williams to be the director of the National Nuclear Security Department, who started his career in the nuclear navy, and provided nuclear energy legislation during his period in Congress.
6) What is the effect of America’s retreat from clean energy initiatives?
Liliana Diaz’s universal colleague at the International Energy Center, Liliana Diaz, says that the Trump administration’s retreat from clean energy initiatives represents a major shift that may reshape the dynamics of global energy and climate work, and by giving priority to expand the extraction and use of fossil fuels through policies such as fast drilling permits The approvals for exporting LNG, America is ready to become a more dominant product of oil and gas.
While this shift can enhance the production of local energy and exports, and enhance energy security, especially for Europe, it comes in a critical stage and may be costly to lead clean technology in America, according to Diaz.
Diaz suggested that the stopping of wind energy development, the cancellation of the targets of the use of electric vehicles, and the freezing of the financing of the Climate Law, to obstruct American progress in developing local clean energy supply chains and manufacturing ability.
This door opens to China to enhance its hegemony in manufacturing clean technology and biological treatment, and America risks its participation in emerging industries such as green hydrogen, carbon detention, and advanced batteries, which are crucial to the carbon -free global economy, according to Diaz.
While government climate initiatives and corporate initiatives may help maintain some momentum, the decline in American leadership threatens to slow carbon removal worldwide.
Diaz says that ultimately, the lack of coordinated federal work is likely to undermine international cooperation and transfer technology, which is vital to building the ability to adapt to the climate at home and abroad.
She adds that with the high costs of climate events to the highest level in the century in the country, the Trump administration may need to include solutions to address the escalating physical risks in its tool group “to make America great again”, which is the Trump logo.
7) Can America, during the Trump era, continue to lead clean energy initiatives?
Lee Lee Beck says that the American clean energy initiatives are one of the American leaderships as a dominant resource, and the government of America, through many departments, was a pioneer in providing incentives on the offer that encourages the private sector to invest on a large scale Clean energy technology, innovations in business models and project development improved, and increased investment in this sector.
Beck adds that regarding the already implemented tax exemptions, the sector has designed projects compatible with these exemptions, and they are already developing, in a narrow time frame, in a set of advanced clean energy technologies.
To reach the final investment decisions on projects on a large scale, the industry needs certainty and political continuity, and while the president issued an executive order focusing on assessing the allocations resulting from the inflation reduction law for 2022, the tax exemptions that have already been implemented remain the same, according to Beck.
With America seeking to play a global leadership role in the field of energy and export innovations, Beck called on policymakers to cooperate to improve organizational details to open the way for reducing costs, encouraging more investments in the private sector, and enhancing global competitiveness, especially in the face of rapid and effective actors such as China.
He urged the government to focus in the future on protecting investment certainty so that the projects that are being planned already can continue to progress.
